US Waiver on Russian Oil Tariffs Gives India Temporary Relief but Leaves Risks

United States President Donald Trump issued a waiver on October 16 that puts threatened tariffs of up to 100 percent on countries purchasing Russian oil on hold, granting temporary relief to India. The decision, announced by the Global Trade Research Initiative on Saturday, follows the enactment of the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026. The think tank noted that while the waiver gives New Delhi some breathing room, the underlying threat remains because Washington can withdraw the suspension at any time and use the potential penalties as leverage in bilateral trade negotiations.

According to the Global Trade Research Initiative, the United States may have stepped back due to its own domestic energy needs, a tariff truce with China, and the risk of disrupting trade talks with India. The US recently agreed to purchase Russian diesel to address domestic fuel shortages and high prices, making punitive actions against other buyers look like double standards. Furthermore, Washington established a tariff truce with China following a visit by Chinese President Xi Jinping. The executive order utilizes Section 115 to put the Graham Act penalties on hold without a fixed expiry date.

Despite the temporary reprieve, experts advise India to protect its energy security, purchase oil on commercial terms, and avoid making permanent trade concessions based on temporary relief. India's oil sourcing has already seen shifts, with Russia's share of imports decreasing from 51 percent in July to 44 percent in August as purchases moved toward the United States and the United Arab Emirates. The think tank emphasized that New Delhi should maintain flexibility in its energy decisions and prepare for possible renewed American pressure.