OPEC projects strong global oil demand growth for 2027 led by India and non-OECD Asia

Global oil demand is projected to increase significantly in the year 2027, driven largely by consumption growth in India and other Asian economies. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries announced these projections during the IMF-World Bank Annual Meetings, stating that world oil demand will average 108.2 mb/d in 2027, up from an anticipated 105.8 mb/d in 2026. Healthy economic activity, petrochemical feedstock, and transportation fuels will support this upward trend.

India and Other Asia will spearhead the oil demand growth, with notable contributions also expected from China and the Middle East. For the year 2026, global demand is expected to grow by roughly 0.4 mb/d, aided by stable private investment, mobility, air travel, and strong requirements from Latin America and non-OECD Asia. Non-OECD economies are projected to see their demand rise by about 0.5 mb/d this year to average 59.7 mb/d, whereas OECD economies will likely experience a year-on-year decline of approximately 110,000 barrels per day to average 46.1 mb/d.

Looking ahead to 2027, OECD economies should see a demand recovery of about 0.4 mb/d, while non-OECD demand is forecast to increase by roughly 2 mb/d. On the supply side, liquids production outside the Declaration of Cooperation will rise by 0.6 mb/d in both 2026 and 2027. Exploration and production capital expenditure is set to drop by 2 percent to USD 613 billion in 2026 before climbing 6 percent to USD 651 billion in 2027. OPEC stressed that sustained upstream investment is essential to meet future energy demands and maintain spare capacity, while forecasting global economic growth of 3 percent in 2026 and 3.2 percent in 2027, with India growing at 6.6 percent and 6.5 percent respectively.