Pulling back to the Second Island Chain would be strategic folly

Pulling back to the Second Island Chain would be strategic folly In a recent report, Jennifer Kavanagh of Defense Priorities called for the U.S. To end its formal security commitments to Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines and to withdraw nearly all of its forces in those countries to the Second Island Chain. This shift, Kavanagh argues, would leave the U.S. “more secure” with a “more sustainable military footprint.” The report deserves credit for diversifying debate in Washington. However, we disagree with Kavanagh’s recommendations. A Second Island Chain strategy would not protect vital U.S. Interests or enhance regional stability. U.S. Regional dominance, as the report identifies, is no longer possible or necessary, but withdrawing to the Second Island Chain risks destabilizing the region and undermining Washington’s hand in any future conflicts in East Asia. A map of the First and Second Island Chains. Williams/Wikimedia Commons) The report assumes that after terminating its alliances with Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines, the U.S. Could still preserve enough influence in Asia to maintain a balance of power not dominated by China; even without U.S. Defense commitments, these allies could not only defend themselves militarily against China but could also retain sufficient political autonomy. Yet China need not achieve regional dominance through military conquest to render these states exceedingly vulnerable to coercion. Indeed, China can pursue sustained coercion by exploiting economic dependencies or using gray-zone military activities to punish Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines for refusing to accommodate its interests, incentivizing them to bandwagon with China rather than balance against it. Without the U.S. As a credible guarantor for these states’ security, China could, for instance, pressure countries to accommodate its positions in territorial disputes or limit cooperation with the U.S. In strategically important industries like semiconductors and shipbuilding.